Reserve Currency Uncertainty

Original dollar symbol, from the early United ...
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Since the end of World War II the dollar has been the currency of international trade, also known as a “reserve currency.” This has allowed the US to buy commodities for relatively little and, as international journalists have accused: print its way out of debt. However, whether this last allegation is true or not, having the US dollar as the largest international reserve currency has given the United States an enormous amount of economic power. The economic crisis has placed this power under threat as the international community looses faith in the dollar. The question is: what could replace the dollar?

The most obvious answer is the euro. Since its establishment, a number of large banks have switched to the euro, countries trade in it, and there is even talk about measuring commodities (such as oil) in the euro. This would be a major indicator that the euro is becoming the new reserve currency. However, as first the Greek and now Irish economies almost collapsed, in 2009 and 2010 respectively, the euro is starting to loose steam. Indeed, some economists are worried that the contagion will spread to Portugal and Spain.

Europe’s currency crisis has caused people to run back to the safe haven they know: the dollar. However, as dissatisfaction with the America mounts pressure is building to develop a universal international currency. The IMF has even made an official proposal, a currency called the “Bancor,” and several other major banks support the idea in theory (although none have commented yet about the Bancor). This would be a major blow to the United States, who has used its control over the reserve currency to continue limping along on a huge trade deficit.

However, there is still strong opposition to having a universal currency, and not just from the US. It seems likely, therefore, that the US dollar will remain the international reserve currency at least until the end of the economic crisis.

Dollar Strength and an International Market

Ten-dollar bill obverse/reverse
Image by LividFiction via Flickr

Historically, having a strong dollar has been good for the average citizen. After all, a strong dollar will go farther in an international market than a weak dollar, enabling the tourist  ($1 = X international currency! Everything is so cheap here!) as well as allowing one to purchase international stocks for relatively little. However, recently the opposite has been true. Since late summer, a strong dollar has meant a dip in the stock market and visa versa. While at first this seems counter intuitive it does make logical sense for a couple of reasons.

First, just as the  tourist is excited to buy foreign goods when the dollar is strong, foreign markets are eager to get the best prices they can on American goods. This means that when the dollar is weak our exports have a competitive edge. This confidence is reflected in the stock market when stocks rise. The best supporting example for this phenomenon is China. Economists have accused China of intentionally devaluing its currency to help their export driven economy (something the United States was also accused of recently at the G20).

Second, when the future is uncertain and the stock market takes a hit (as in the Irish bailout and the fear of the contagion spreading to Spain and Portugal) the dollar has tended to be at its strongest. This is because, like gold or oil, the dollar is seen as an investment for hard times. Similar to people stuffing their mattresses with greenbacks during the depression, investing in the dollar is seen as safer than the market at the moment.

However, the dollar and the stock market have only rarely been so closely tied before. It seems likely, therefore, that all of these explanations are only really applicable in a bear market. All we can do is speculate and wait to see if this fascinating trend continues.